In March, the price of stainless steel tubes rose first and then fell. Can they recover their strength in April?
One is to focus on the impact of various uncertain and disturbing factors overseas on commodity market sentiment from a macro perspective; The second is the reduction of crude steel at the industrial end. Although the possibility of setting a specific reduction target this year is low, due to the significant increase in crude steel production from January to February, the market has again speculated on the reduction of crude steel, and the logic of trading distant month contracts has already begun; The third is the increase in production and inventory changes caused by the profit situation of steel mills; The fourth is the sustainability of the actual demand and transaction of downstream terminal construction sites, with a focus on when the daily turnover of stainless steel pipes will rebound to 200000 tons; Fifth, focus on changes in raw material costs, as weakening cost support will lead to a downward shift in the price center of stainless steel tubes. At present, the terminal demand for various parts of stainless steel pipes has not formed resonance, which will constrain the future peak demand and duration. Currently, there is a tendency for good demand in April but a decline in demand in May.
Looking forward to April, although the production of molten iron has risen to a high level in the same period, it is still expected to continue to recover in terms of time, and it has not yet reached the peak time in previous years. Therefore, the overall supply side of stainless steel pipes in April is still viewed as marginally empty; The sustainability of the demand side recovery is still in doubt, and there is still a lack of strong driving forces from optimistic events. Moreover, the marginal pressure on stainless steel pipe inventory is gradually emerging. If there is no strong start up support from demand in April, the characteristics of low inventory in the same period are expected to be broken. Therefore, there is still a risk of falling short of expectations in April. Moreover, the price of raw materials is currently in the correction channel. As the cost center of stainless steel tubes moves downward, the market still lacks upward momentum in April, and it is expected that the probability will maintain a low adjustment pattern.
Post time: Mar-28-2023