1. macroscopically, in the second half of the year, downward pressure on the domestic economy increased, the industrial economy showed a weak trend of both supply and demand, the real estate market cooled down, investment in infrastructure was weak, investment in the manufacturing sector was still recovering, and the outbreak of local epidemics dragged down consumption, marginal slowdown in export growth. Tightening of the Federal Reserve liquidity is expected to support the strong dollar, add to the impact of the epidemic, the recent international crude oil, base metal prices fell significantly. The high point of commodity inflation is now, the economy is slowing down quarter by quarter, China's macro-policy will strengthen cross-cycle regulation
2.Conditions of raw materials (1) iron ore
This week, with the supply of iron ore significantly increased and the impact of demand-constrained production continued to decline, steel mills are still expected to inventory space, traders will continue to accumulate resources, the pattern of oversupply and overdemand is difficult to reverse, iron ore prices still have room to fall further
Billet prices last week by the futures market fell significantly, prices down, rolling steel production, inventory accumulation on the price is not supported. However, from the point of view of the time node, the basic face of the expected price boost is strong, the driving force is mainly in the downstream steel rolling link. At present, except a few head mills have high inventory of finished products, most of finished products are out of stock and out of specification, and the order is full in the post-production period. According to the present billet-material price, the profit of instant steel rolling is over 150. To some extent, it gives the space of billet increase. Of course, from the stock point of view, the lower rolling mill stock near the high point in the year, the resumption of production is expected to be fully prepared, the beginning of a short period of time will give priority to digestion plant stock, billet prices have some resistance. Above all, in the short-term billet prices have upward momentum, but the rise or from the release of inventory resistance.
Supply: Hot Coil repair continues to maintain, so there is little room for change in output, expected to maintain at 3.18-3.21 million tons/week; Demand: Downstream from the Mysteel survey results, cold-rolled social inventory maintained a small downward, short-term cold system sales. However, in the case of private cold rolling mills, the pick-up rate is low, and the profit value is compressed more obviously, and there will be some reduction in the later period to alleviate the pressure. In other industries, the construction machinery industry expects orders to pick up in September, in heavy truck industry, the speed of inventory digestion is still on the slow side, the order shows a decline, and the strength of support is on the low side in the late period, there is no shortage of engineering orders, and enterprises dare not blindly take orders. The main reason is that profit and capital constraints are more obvious. Therefore, there is limited room for steel structure consumption to rebound. In the infrastructure industry, there is currently a month-on-month rebound, but it is still down compared with last year, for counter-cyclical industries, short-term support will only show, increase the space is relatively limited; on the export side, steel mills feedback, August orders will be lower than July, export orders will show a decline (saddle, Ben, Mei) . However, on the current look, steel mills in the end of the third quarter to the fourth quarter there will be a reduction, so the expected production reduction or slowly reflected in the market. INVENTORY: Recent steel mill pressure is not reflected, the steel mill or maintain the normal transfer, the factory will maintain the level of 950-980,000 tons of inventory adjustment; lower consumption around just need, order general, lack of money, low profit carried out, there will be infrastructure and infrastructure projects, but the current lack of strength is expected to continue to rise. To sum up, this week hot and cold rolled prices or will be a shock wait-and-see operation, the end of the basic shipment-oriented operations.
9.Stainless steel
3.Coal Coke
[ on coking coal ] coal production is expected to pick up slowly this week. On the premise of strict prohibition of over-production in coal mines, it is difficult to see a big increase in the supply of coking coal. In the near future, it is expected that the supply will remain tight; the epidemic situation in Mongolia has been repeated, the number of vehicles passing through customs has decreased, and there is still uncertainty in the later stage, the increase in imports is limited; the opening of coking plants is expected to drop slightly this week, but the drop in demand will not make up for the shortfall in supply for the time being, and stocks of coking coal from downstream coking enterprises and steel mills are still on a downward trend; prices are still expected to rise, coal prices will remain high this week.
[ in terms of coke ] in addition to its own supply and demand, the most important reason for the rise of Coke is cost-driven; the supply and demand of coke itself is tight and balanced, and both supply and demand are expected to decline. The reduction in production at the supply end due to environmental protection and the pressure on coke coal purchasing restrict coke enterprises from increasing production, downstream Steel Mills have also continued to see a drop in demand in the context of reduced crude steel production, but steel mills'inventories have also been consumed relatively quickly, and they are still in a state of destocking in the near future. In addition, coking coal prices have risen sharply, and costs have seriously eroded the profits of coking enterprises, coke will continue to increase the transfer of production cost pressure in the near future, today has a sixth round of coke up, is expected to be able to implement soon.
4.scrap
At present, the demand for scrap steel in local steel mills remains differentiated, although the profits of electric arc furnace slightly contracted, but the overall performance is still considerable. The scrap price is slightly lower than the cost of molten iron, and the cost-performance ratio of scrap has decreased. In addition, although finished products fell on Friday, and the market rebound, but in the off-season shipments are not smooth background, price rebound or limited, for scrap price support or will be limited. CONSIDERING THE COST OF MOLTEN IRON to move down further, this week is expected to be dominated by domestic scrap market prices.
5.Steel Billet
6.All kinds of steel construction steel
From last week's macro and real estate data, the downstream demand has not yet significantly improved, demand start-up expectations have not improved significantly, or even deteriorated, market mentality needs to be adjusted. In the short term, iron ore, coal, demand and other factors will jointly affect the price trend of construction steel, the market may continue to be small depots, continue to wait for demand recovery and release process, construction steel prices this week is expected to be a wait-and-see adjustment, the operation of a narrow range of shocks.
7.Medium Plate
Recalling last week's domestic plate market, the overall situation continues to weaken, in the short term, the main concern is the following factors: supply-side, recent steel mill output has been slightly lower level, but with the expansion of steel mill profits, some steel mills have delayed maintenance plans, and in the future medium plate production may increase slightly. In circulation, due to the high single negotiated price of the north steel mill and the narrowing price difference between the South and the north, the demand for orders has dropped significantly, as a result, the recent market arrival volume has dropped, and the increase in the social pool has been relatively small, relieving the pressure of accumulated stocks. On the demand side, with this round of deep adjustment in the price of the medium plate, speculative demand has dropped, the pace of downstream procurement has slowed down, and some demand has been suppressed, but from Friday's market situation, after the spot stabilizes, the demand in this week will have the certain degree to discharge. Integrated Forecast, this week, supply and demand plate double increase, prices or continue to run shocks.
8.Cold and Hot Rolling
However, at present, the inventory of terminal enterprises is at a low level, and attention is paid to the rhythm of replenishment downstream. In addition, the immediate calculation of 304 production profit has greatly narrowed, and the immediate profit of high nickel iron process has entered into a loss, there is some support on the cost side; after Aoyama tried to move up, watch the market trading performance, 304 prices are expected to run this week within a narrow range.
Post time: Aug-26-2021