Summary of the week: Summary of Macro News: Li Keqiang presides over the NPC Standing Committee to decide on cross-cycle Adjustment Measures; The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said it would expand consumption of new energy vehicles, green smart appliances and green building materials In the US, 205,000 people filed for unemployment benefits in the week ending December 18. Data tracking: In terms of capital, the central bank put a net 50 billion yuan into the week; the operating rate of 247 blast furnaces in Mysteel’s survey fell below 70% for five consecutive weeks; the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants nationwide remained stable; the price of iron ore rose 7% in the week; the prices of steam coal and rebar, copper prices rose, cement prices fell 6 yuan per ton, concrete prices were stable, the weekly average of 67,000 vehicles retail sales, down 9% , BDI hit a nearly eight month low. Financial Markets: Major Commodity futures were mixed this week, with Chinese stocks down sharply and European and American stocks mostly up, while the dollar index fell 0.57% to 96.17.
1. Important Macro News
Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council chaired a China State Council executive meeting meeting to identify cross-cycle adjustment measures to promote stable development of foreign trade; in 2022, domestic sales of processing trade enterprises will be exempted from tax interest deferred. Ease the pressure of international logistics. Encourage foreign trade enterprises and shipping enterprises to sign long-term agreements. We will crack down on illegal collection of fees and bid-up of freight rates in accordance with laws and regulations. We will implement measures to reduce taxes and fees. We will maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate. On December 24, the Monetary Policy Committee of the People’s Bank of China held its fourth quarter (95th) regular meeting of the 2021. The meeting pointed out that safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers, better meet the reasonable housing needs of home buyers, promote the healthy development of the real estate market and a virtuous circle. We will promote a high level of two-way financial opening up and improve our ability to manage the economy and finance and to prevent and control risks under open conditions. On the afternoon of December 24, the thirty-two sessions of the 13th Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress adopted the decision of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress to hold the Fifth Session of the 13th National People’s Congress. According to the decision, the Fifth Session of the 13th National People’s Congress will be held in Beijing on March 5,2022. On December 20, the National Conference on Industry and Information Technology was held by video in Beijing. The meeting stressed that 2022 should focus on boosting the industrial economy, to provide strong support for the stability of the overall economy. We will expand consumption of new energy vehicles, green smart appliances and green building materials, further strengthen the resilience of industrial chains and provide more assistance to small and medium-sized enterprises. We will implement the “Carbon Summit”initiative in the industrial sector and steadily promote a green and low-carbon industrial transformation. Data from the United States Department of Labor showed 205,000 initial jobless claims for the week ended Dec. 18, in line with expectations. Initial jobless claims in the US were little changed last week, suggesting job cuts are at historically low levels as the job market continues to recover. Claims for unemployment benefits were broadly in line with pre-outbreak levels, reflecting a tight US labour market. Still, as the omicron strain spreads, the increase in new crown cases poses a risk to recruitment prospects.
(2) News Flash
Recently, many places have been busy finalizing a list of major projects for 2022, with plans for a number of major investment projects focusing on key areas such as major transportation and new infrastructure. At the same time, financial security also depends on forward momentum. The new special debt limit for 2022 has been advanced to 1.46 trillion yuan. Hebei, Jiangxi, Shanxi and Zhejiang have announced plans to issue new special debt in the first quarter of next year. Ning Jizhe, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that we should actively introduce policies conducive to economic stability, make good use of investment and consumption policy tools, and implement the upcoming strategic outline to expand domestic demand; Deliberate policies that have a contractionary effect. National Health Commission on the “New Year”initiative on the relevant recommendations: Medium and high-risk areas (such as border crossings, implementation of major activities, etc.) can take more stringent measures. Other regions should do a good job in risk assessment, put forward a strong and warm policy based on risk levels, individual immune status and epidemic situation, instead of “One-size-fits-all”policy, reflecting the requirement of precise prevention and control. Ministry of Finance: total revenue of state-owned enterprises from January to November was 6,734.066 billion, up 21.4 percent year-on-year and an average increase of 9.9 percent in two years. China’s 1st-year LPR was 3.8% in December, 5 basis points lower than that in the previous period, and 4.65% for varieties with more than 5 years. Experts believe that the one-year Lpr reduction helps reduce the financing costs of the real economy, which signals that monetary policy is intensifying counter-cyclical regulation, while the five-year LPR has not changed, that “Housing does not speculation”real estate regulatory tone has not changed.
Central Bank restarts 14-day reverse repurchase operations. On December 20, the central bank launched a seven-day reverse repurchase operation for 10 billion yuan and a 14-day reverse repurchase operation for 10 billion yuan. The winning bid rates were 2.20% and 2.35% respectively. According to the Ministry of Ecology and environment, there are rumors on the Internet that enterprises will be shut down in large areas during the Winter Olympics. These rumors are not true. Under a series of favorable policies, new energy, new materials, new energy vehicles, green smart ships and other green industries are expected to continue to open up a new blue sea of growth. According to relevant arrangements, the green environmental protection industry will have an output value of 11 trillion yuan by 2025. When President Biden’s nearly two trillion spending bill hit a wall, Goldman Sachs slashed its forecast for real U.S. GDP growth in 2022 to 2 percent from 3 percent in the first quarter of next year The second quarter forecast was cut to 3% from 3.5% ; the third quarter forecast was cut to 2.75% from 3% . The World Bank expects China’s real GDP to grow 8.0 percent this year and 5.1 percent in 2022. The Japanese government has finalized its budget plan for the 2022 fiscal year, which is about 107.6 trillion yen, the largest budget on record. Japan will issue 36.9 trillion yen in new bonds in fiscal 2022. The U.S. population grew by 390,000 between July and 2021, a rate of 0.1 percent, the first annual increase since 1937 of less than one million.
WHO Director General Tan Desai said at a news conference in Geneva that the data showed that the omicron mutant strain is spreading faster than the delta strain, people who have been vaccinated with the new crown vaccine or who have recovered may become infected with the virus again. We must end the new coronavirus pandemic by 2022, Tan stressed. The South Korean government released its economic policy directions for 2022, forecasting GDP growth of 4 percent this year, down 0.2 percentage points from its previous forecast, and economic growth of 3.1 percent next year, up 0.1 percentage points from its previous forecast. After rising 2.4 per cent year-on-year, CPI will rise 2.2 per cent next year, 0.6 and 0.8 percentage points higher than previously expected.
2. Data tracking
(1) financial resources
(2) industry data
Overview of financial markets
Commodity futures rose this week, with the exception of LME lead, which fell. LME Zinc prices rose the most, by 4 per cent. On the global stock market, Chinese stocks all fell, with the chinext index falling the most, by 4% , while European and US stocks rose sharply. In the foreign exchange market, the dollar index closed down 0.57 per cent at 96.17.
Key statistics for next week
360翻译字数限制为2000字符，超过2000字符的内容将不会被翻译China’s official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in November, up from 50.1 in August. Zhang Liqun, a special analyst with the China Logistics Information Center, said: “The November PMI index showed a clear pick-up and returned above the boom-and-bust line, indicating that China’s economy is returning to a full recovery.”However, he also noted that, the problem of insufficient demand remains acute. At the same time as the supply-side difficulties ease, China needs to focus on the related work of expanding domestic demand. In particular, we need to give full play to the role of government investment in promoting investment in enterprises, employment and household consumption, resolve the downward pressure caused by demand restriction as soon as possible. As the outbreak continues to recur, PMI is still expected to hover near the lce in December.
(2) summary of key statistics for next week
Post time: Dec-27-2021