Week in review:
Big News: Xi will hold a video conference with Biden on the morning of November 16, Beijing Time; the release of the Glasgow Joint Declaration on Strengthening Climate Action in the 2020s; The Twenty National Communist Party congresses were held in Beijing in the second half of 2022; CPI and PPI rose 1.5% and 13.5% respectively in October; and CPI in the US surged to 6.2% year on year in October, the biggest increase since 1990. Data tracking: In terms of funds, the central bank put a net 280 billion yuan into the week; the operating rate of the 247 blast furnaces surveyed by Mysteel rose by 1 percent, and the operating rate of the 110 coal washing plants nationwide fell for three consecutive weeks; the prices of iron ore, rebar and thermal coal all dropped significantly during the week, copper prices rose, cement prices fell, concrete prices remained stable, the week’s average daily retail sales of passenger cars 33,000, down 9% , BDI fell 2.7% . Financial Markets: All major commodity futures rose this week, with the exception of crude oil. Global stocks rose, with the exception of U.S. stocks. The dollar index rose 0.94% to 95.12.
1. Important Macro News
(1) focus on hot spots
On November 13, Foreign Ministry spokesman Hua Chunying announced that, by mutual agreement, Chinese President Xi Jinping will hold a video conference with U.S. President Biden on the morning of November 16, Beijing Time, to exchange views on china-us relations and issues of common concern. China and the United States issued the Glasgow Joint Declaration on strengthening climate action in the 2020s during the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow. The two sides agreed to set up a “Working group on strengthening climate action in the 2020s”to promote bilateral cooperation and multilateral process on climate change. The declaration mentions:
(1) China will formulate a national action plan on methane to achieve remarkable results in the 2020s. In addition, China and the United States plan to hold a joint meeting in the first half of 2022 to focus on specific issues of enhanced methane measurement and emission reduction, including the adoption of standards to reduce methane emissions from the fossil energy and waste industries, and reducing methane emissions from agriculture through incentives and programs. (2) to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, the two countries plan to cooperate in supporting the effective integration of policies for high-share, low-cost, intermittent renewable energy, and in encouraging an effective balance of transmission policies for electricity supply and demand across a wide geographical area; Encourage the integration of distributed generation policies for solar energy, energy storage and other clean energy solutions closer to the end of electricity use; and energy efficiency policies and standards to reduce electricity waste. (3) the United States has set a goal of 100 percent carbon-free electricity by 2035. China will gradually reduce coal consumption during the 10th five-year plan period and do its utmost to speed up this work.
The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued opinions on deepening the battle against pollution.
(1) target to reduce carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 18 per cent by 2025 compared with 2020. B) supporting localities, key industries and key enterprises where conditions permit to take the lead in reaching the summit will formulate a national climate change adaptation strategy 2035. (3) during the 14th five-year plan period, the growth of coal consumption will be strictly controlled, and the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will increase to about 20% . When the relevant conditions are ripe, we will study how to bring Volatile organic compound into the scope of environmental protection tax in due course. (4) promote the transition from long-flow bf-bof steelmaking to short-flow EAF steelmaking. Key areas strictly prohibit new steel, coking, cement clinker, flat glass, electrolytic aluminum, alumina, coal chemical production capacity. 5. Implementing a clean diesel vehicle (engine) campaign, basically phasing out vehicles with emission standards at or below the national level, promoting the demonstration and application of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and promoting clean energy vehicles in an orderly manner. The Central Bank has launched a carbon reduction support tool to support the development of key areas such as clean energy, energy conservation and environmental protection, and carbon reduction technologies, and to leverage more social funds to promote carbon reduction. The target is tentatively designated as a national financial institution. The Central Bank, through a direct mechanism of “Lending first and borrowing later,”will grant eligible carbon reduction loans to relevant enterprises in the key area of carbon emission reduction, at 60% of the principal of the loan, the interest rate is 1.75% . According to the National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China, the CPI rose 1.5% in October from a year earlier, driven by a surge in fresh food and energy prices, reversing a four month downward trend. The PPI rose 13.5% in October from a year earlier, coal Mining and washing and other eight industries combined impact PPI rose about 11.38 percentage points, more than 80% of the total increase
The US consumer price index surged to 6.2 per cent year-on-year in October, its biggest rise since 1990, suggesting inflation will take longer to rise than expected, putting pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates sooner or cut back more quickly; CPI rose 0.9 per cent month-on-month, the biggest in four months. The core CPI rose 4.2 per cent year-on-year, its biggest annual increase since 1991. Initial jobless claims fell to a new low of 267,000 in the week ended November 6, down from 269,000, according to the United States Department of Labor. Initial claims for unemployment benefits have been falling steadily since they passed 900,000 in January and are approaching pre-epidemic levels of about 220,000 a week
(2) News Flash
The Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in Beijing from November 8 to 11. The plenum decided that the Twenty National Congresses of the Chinese Communist Party would be held in Beijing in the second half of 2022. The plenary session held that since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the balance, coordination and sustainability of China’s economic development have been significantly enhanced, and the country’s economic, scientific and technological strength and Comprehensive National Power have risen to a new level. On the morning of November 12, the National Development and Reform Commission held a meeting of the Leading party group. The meeting pointed out that bottom-line thinking, focusing on development and security, do a good job in food security, energy security, industrial chain supply chain security, and do a good job in finance, real estate and other areas of risk management and prevention. At the same time, we will carry out the key tasks of development and reform at the end of the year and the beginning of the year in a stable and orderly manner, do a good job in cross-cyclical adjustment, work out a good plan for economic work for next year, and earnestly do a good job in ensuring the supply and stable prices of energy and key commodities for people’s livelihood this winter and next spring. According to customs statistics, in the first 10 months of this year, China’s imports and exports totaled 31.67 trillion yuan, up 22.2 percent year-on-year and 23.4 percent year-on-year. Of this total, 17.49 trillion yuan was exported, up 22.5 percent year-on-year, up 25 percent from the same period in 2019; 14.18 trillion yuan was imported, up 21.8 percent year-on-year, up 21.4 percent from the same period in 2019; and the trade surplus was 3.31 trillion yuan, up 25.5 percent year-on-year.
According to the Central Bank, M2 grew by 8.7% year on year at the end of October, higher than market expectations of 8.4% ; new renminbi loans increased by 826.2 billion yuan, up by 136.4 Billion Yuan; and social financing increased by 1.59 trillion yuan, up by 197 billion yuan, the stock of social financing was 309.45 trillion yuan at the end of October, up 10 percent year on year. China’s foreign exchange reserves stood at $3,217.6 billion at the end of October, up $17 billion, or 0.53 percent, from the end of September, according to data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. The Fourth China International Import Expo will close on November 10, with a cumulative turnover of us $70.72 billion. On 202111, the total transaction value of TMALL 11 reached a new high of 540.3 billion yuan, while the total amount of orders placed on JD.com 11.11 reached 349.1 billion yuan, also setting a new record. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation has released an analysis of economic trends, forecasting that the economies of APEC members will grow by 6 percent 2021 and stabilize at 4.9 percent in 2022. The Asia Pacific region is forecast to grow by 8% in 2021 after contracting by 3.7% in the first half of 2020. The commission raised its inflation outlook for the eurozone this year and next to 2.4 per cent and 2.2 per cent respectively, but forecast a sharp slowdown to 1.4 per cent in the 2023, below the ECB’s 2 per cent target. The European Commission has raised its GDP growth forecast for the eurozone to 5% this year and forecasts growth of 4.3% in 2022 and 2.4% in 2023. In the US, the PPI rose 8.6 per cent year-on-year in October, staying at a more than 10-year high, while the month-on-month increase widened to 0.6 per cent, in line with forecasts. US core PPI rose 6.8 per cent year-on-year and 0.4 per cent month-on-month in October. Fumio Kishida was elected the 101st Prime Minister of Japan on November 10,2010, in a hand-picked election for the position of prime minister in the lower house of the Diet.
2. Data tracking
(1) financial resources
(2) industry data
Overview of financial markets
During the week, commodity futures, the main commodity futures except crude oil fell, the rest rose. Aluminium was the biggest gainer at 5.56 per cent. In the global stock market, except for the US stock market falls, all other rises. In foreign exchange markets, the dollar index closed up 0.94 per cent at 95.12.
Key statistics for next week
1. China will publish data on fixed asset investment for October
Time: Monday (1115) comments: The National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China is expected to release nationwide fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) data from January to October on November 15. Fixed Asset Investment (excluding farmers) may rise 6.3 percent from January to October, according to a forecast by seven Xinhua finance and economics groups. Institutional Analysis, energy consumption double control on industrial production; real estate investment by the impact of the previous real estate policy or more clearly reflected.
(2) summary of key statistics for next week
Post time: Nov-15-2021