Overview of the week

Overview of the week:

Macro News: Xi Jinping pointed out strict control of the “Two high”projects blindly launched to ensure a stable supply of coal and electricity; the Development and Reform Commission launched an intensive campaign to stabilize coal prices; China’s third-quarter GDP grew by 4.9% year-on-year; real estate tax reform pilot came; NEW CLAIMS FOR JOBLESS BENEFITS HIT RECORD LOW.

Data tracking: In terms of funds, the Central Bank put in a net 270 billion yuan for the week; the operating rate of 247 blast furnaces in Mysteel’s survey dropped slightly, while the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants nationwide rose to 70.43 percent; and the price of iron ore dropped to 120 U.S. dollars during the week, power coal prices fell, copper, rebar prices fell significantly, cement, concrete prices rose slightly, the week the average daily retail sales of passenger cars 46,000, down 19% , BDI fell 9.1% .

Financial Markets: Major commodity futures fell this week, with crude oil rising to $80 a barrel. Global stocks rose, while the dollar index fell 0.37% to 93.61.

1. Important Macro News

(1) focus on hot spots

The Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing from November 8 to 11.

The 20th issue of Qiushi Magazine, published on October 16, has published an important article by Chinese President Xi Jinping, “Firmly promoting common prosperity.”. The article points out that we should encourage high-income people and enterprises to give more back to society, strengthen the management of income distribution in monopoly industries and state-owned enterprises, resolutely crack down on illegal income and resolutely curb power-money transactions, cRACK DOWN ON INSIDER TRADING, stock market manipulation, financial fraud, tax evasion and other illegal income. We will increase the size of the middle-income group.

On the 21st, General Secretary Xi Jinping arrived at the Shengli Oil Field, boarded the oil rig, inspected the operation and visited the oil workers. Xi pointed out that the construction of oil and energy resources is of great significance to our country. As a big manufacturing country, to develop the real economy, China must keep the energy job in its own hands.

Xi delivered an important speech at a symposium on promoting ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin in Jinan, Shandong Province, Wednesday. Starting from both the supply and demand sides, Xi pointed out that double-control Measures on energy consumption should be implemented, “Two high”projects should be strictly controlled blindly, the energy production structure should be adjusted in an orderly manner, and backward production capacity and production processes with large carbon emissions should be eliminated. Efforts should be made to ensure a stable supply of coal and electricity and ensure a good economic and social operation.

On the 20th, Premier Li Keqiang presided over the China State Council executive meeting. The meeting decided to crack down on coal market speculation according to law. To prevent the downward transmission of rising commodity prices to increase the costs of micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, and to study such inclusive policies as phased tax and fee reductions, and to do a good job in autumn and winter planting, so as to provide strong support for ensuring food security and price stability.

Politburo member of the Communist Party of China Liu He, Vice Premier of the State Council: Make overall efforts to prevent and control financial risks. We must adhere to the principles of marketization and rule of law, adhere to the bottom line thinking, and realize risk prevention and steady development of the Dynamic equilibrium. At present, there are some problems in the real estate market, but the risks are generally controllable, reasonable capital demand is being met, and the overall situation of healthy development of the real estate market will not change.

Vice Premier Han Zheng: effectively increase coal production capacity while meeting safety and environmental requirements. We will study and take effective measures to resolutely curb and regulate hoarding and speculation according to law. We should carry out the policy of enlarging the floating range of coal-fired electricity price, help the coal-fired power enterprises to alleviate the difficulty in the period, and study and perfect the formation mechanism of coal-fired electricity price marketization.

The National Development and Reform Commission and other five departments jointly issued a number of opinions on strict energy efficiency constraints to promote energy conservation and carbon reduction in key areas. Target by 2025, through the implementation of energy-saving and carbon-reducing actions, key industries such as steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, flat glass and other data centers will reach the benchmark level of production capacity ratio of more than 30% , and the overall energy efficiency level of the industry has improved significantly, the intensity of carbon emission decreased obviously, and the merger and reorganization of steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, flat glass and other industries were accelerated.

This week, the National Development and Reform Commission has been vocal in its emphasis on keeping coal prices stable.

(1) National Development and Reform Commission: to make full use of all necessary means provided for in the price law, to study concrete measures to intervene in the price of coal, to promote the return of the price of coal to a reasonable range and to promote the return of the coal market to rationality, we will ensure a safe and stable supply of energy and a warm winter for the people.

(2) National Development and Reform Commission: Many measures have been taken to increase coal production and supply with notable results. According to strict safety assessment, nuclear production capacity of 153 coal mines has been allowed to increase by 220 million tons per year since September, and relevant coal mines have been producing according to the approved production capacity, with an increase of more than 50 million tons in the fourth quarter. Daily output of coal hits record high this year. China’s daily coal production recently reached more than 11.5 million tons, an increase of more than 1.5 million tons over mid-september.

(3) on the afternoon of the 19th, the National Development and Reform Commission was mainly responsible for leading a team of comrades to go to the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange to investigate and hold a symposium, to study the price trend of power coal futures since this year and to strengthen supervision in accordance with the law, strictly investigate and punish the malicious speculation of capital power coal futures.

(4) the National Development and Reform Commission has launched eight measures to encourage key enterprises in coal, power, oil and gas transportation to ensure supply and stabilize prices: first, further release coal production capacity; second, steadily increase coal production; and third, guide coal prices back to a reasonable level; Fourth, to further implement the full coverage of medium-and long-term coal contracts for power generation and heat supply enterprises; fifth, to promote the full development of coal-fired power generating units; sixth, to ensure the supply and use of gas in strict accordance with contracts; seventh, to strengthen the security of energy transport; Eight is to strengthen the future spot market linkage supervision.

(5) on the 20th, the assessment and Supervision Department of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) was mainly responsible for leading a team to go to Qinhuangdao, Caofeidian and Henan Province to supervise the work of ensuring stable coal supply and prices. The Steering Group stressed that illegal acts such as malicious hoarding and bid-up of prices should be resolutely investigated and dealt with, and efforts should be made to maintain order in the coal market; and acts of bid-up of prices and disruption of market economic order should be severely combated, focus on cracking down on capital speculation coal spot market behavior and public exposure.

(6) in accordance with the relevant provisions of the “Price Law”, in order to strengthen the supervision of coal market prices, study concrete measures to intervene in coal prices, the National Development and Reform Commission promptly organized the development and Reform Commissions, key coal production enterprises, trading enterprises and coal-using enterprises in various localities to carry out special investigations on the production and circulation costs and prices of coal, detailed understanding of the cost of coal production enterprises, sales prices and other relevant information.

(7) Jiang Yi, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)’s Department of reform and reform, said at a press conference on the 21st that he will continue to work with relevant departments to strengthen commodity price monitoring and analysis, organize follow-up batches of state reserves to be released, and take multiple measures to increase market supply, we will continue to step up joint supervision of the spot market and curb excessive speculation.

(8) on the 22nd, the Pricing Department of the National Development and Reform Commission convened a meeting of the China Coal Industry Association and some key coal enterprises to discuss the reasonable prices and profit levels of the industry, this paper studies the concrete policies and measures to prevent coal enterprises from profiteering and to ensure the long-term stability of coal prices in a reasonable range. The meeting stressed that coal enterprises should consciously regulate their operations in accordance with the law and set reasonable prices, and that those who violate the law on prices in violation of the existing regulations on curbing profiteering will be severely punished in accordance with the law.

On the 21st, the National Energy Group held a special meeting on guarantee and supply. The meeting called on the coal industry to ensure an orderly increase in production of coal in the fourth quarter; the O to expand coal sources, optimize the purchase and sale mechanism of coal, expand the radius of Xinjiang coal export areas, increase the introduction of foreign coal, Supplement the shortage of resources; The coal industry has taken the lead in promoting the return of coal prices to a reasonable level, resolutely implementing the policy of limiting coal prices, and closing 5,500 large-truck ports at a price of no more than 1,800 yuan per ton.

China’s gross domestic product grew 4.9 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, slowing 3 percentage points from the second quarter, and averaging 4.9 percent growth over the two years, down from 0.6 percentage points in the second quarter. The year-on-year growth rate decreased obviously under the influence of the repeated epidemic situation, the double control of energy consumption, the influence of limited production on industrial production and the gradual effect of real estate control.

Industrial value added is lower than expected. In September, the value-added of industries above scale increased by 3.1% year-on-year in real terms, and by 10.2% over the same period in 2019. The two-year average growth rate was 5.0% . On a month-on-month basis, it was up 0.05 per cent. From January to September, the value added of industries above the scale increased by 11.8 per cent year-on-year, with a two-year average growth of 6.4 per cent.

The overall growth rate of investment has narrowed. From January to September, fixed asset investment rose 7.3 per cent year-on-year, a 1.6 percentage point increase from the previous eight months. By sector, infrastructure investment rose 1.5 per cent year-on-year, or 1.4 percentage points less than the previous eight months, while real estate development investment increased 8.8 per cent year-on-year, or 2.1 percentage points less than the previous eight months Manufacturing investment rose 14.8 per cent year-on-year, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous eight months.

Consumption growth rebounded as expected in September. In September, retail sales of consumer goods totaled 3,683.3 billion yuan, up 4.4 percent from a year earlier and up 7.8 percent from September 2019, with a two-year average growth rate of 3.8 percent. On a month-on-month basis, retail sales rose 0.3 per cent in September. 1 In September, retail sales of consumer goods totaled 318057 billion yuan, up 16.4% from a year earlier and 8.0% higher than in September 2019. Of this total, retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles totaled 285992 billion yuan, up 16.3 percent.

The number of new claims for unemployment benefits in the United States is at a record low. The number of Americans filing initial jobless claims for the week ended Oct. 16 was 290,000, the lowest since March last year. The main reason is the elimination of enhanced benefits and the decline in new job losses, indicating that the grim U.S. employment situation is about to improve or has already begun to improve.

(2) News Flash

In order to actively and steadily advance the legislation and reform of the real estate tax, guide the rational consumption of housing and the economical and intensive use of land resources, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market, thirty-one sessions of the 13th Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress decided to authorize the State Council to carry out the pilot work of real estate tax reform in some regions.

The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the outline of the plan for the construction of the Shuangcheng District economic circle in the chengdu-chongqing region. Proposed by 2035, the completion of a strong and distinctive Shuangcheng District economic circle, Chongqing, Chengdu into the ranks of modern international cities.

China’s October 1-year loan market quote rate (LPR) is 3.85% ; the five-year loan market quote rate (LPR) is 4.65% . For the 18th consecutive month.

In the first three quarters, the net profit of central enterprises continued to grow rapidly, with a cumulative net profit of 1,512.96 billion yuan, an increase of 65.6 percent year-on-year, an increase of 43.2 percent over the same period in 2019, and an average increase of 19.7 percent in two years.

The national carbon emission trading market will be on line for 100 days. As of October 18, the total turnover of the national carbon market has exceeded 800 million yuan, with the first compliance period approaching, the market is increasingly active.

On the 15th, the CSRC announced that qualified foreign investors may participate in the trading of financial derivatives, adding three types of futures, options and index options. The trading purpose of the options shall be limited to hedging, since 2021, November 1.

On October 15, a new round of electricity price reform was launched. According to incomplete statistics, Shandong, Jiangsu and other places have their own organizations to carry out the first transaction after deepening the market-oriented reform of coal-fired electricity price on the grid, the average transaction price than the benchmark price “Top price floating.”.

From January to September, the NDRC approved 66 fixed asset investment projects with a total investment of 480.4 billion yuan, mainly in the transportation, energy and information industries. In September, the government approved seven projects with a total investment of 75.2 billion yuan.

National Railway Administration: In the first three quarters of 2021, the total investment in railway fixed assets reached 510.2 billion yuan, down 7.8% year on year.

CAA: Sales of chinese-branded passenger cars rose 16.7 percent month-on-month in September to 821,000 units, or 3.7 percent year-on-year, accounting for 46.9 percent of total passenger car sales, up 1.6 percent from the previous month and 9.1 percent year-on-year.

25,894 excavators were produced in September, down 5.7 percent year-on-year and 18.9 percent year-on-year, and up 50.2 percent month-on-month, ending five months of decline. Total production from January to September was 272730 units, up 15 per cent year-on-year

In 2021, the annual capacity of rotor compressors in China was 288.1 million, accounting for 89.5% of the global production capacity, and has become the world’s largest production base of rotor compressors.

In September, 4,078,200 internal combustion engines were sold, up 11.11 percent month-on-month, down 13.09 percent year-on-year, and 20,632.85 million kilowatts of power, up 21.87 percent month-on-month, down 20.30 percent year-on-year.

Korean shipbuilding orders in September were less than half China’s but cost three times as much per ship. But in order to increase the back, due to the cost of raw materials, the shipyard “Incremental non-profit”pressure is increasing.

The Bank of England governor, Andrew Edson Arantes do Nascimento, hinted that the bank was preparing to raise interest rates from their current record low of 0.1% .

On October 19th Indonesia’s president, Joko Widodo, said his country planned to “Put the brakes”on exports of all commodity raw materials to attract investment in the processing of domestic resources and create jobs. Indonesia has banned the export of raw minerals such as nickel, tin and copper, including the production of batteries for electric cars and the aluminium industry.

Russia will continue to restrict gas supplies to Europe next month.

2. Data tracking

(1) financial resources

(2) industry data

Overview of financial markets

In commodity futures, crude oil rose $80 a barrel, precious metals rose and Non-ferrous metal fell, with zinc falling the most, by 10.33% . On the Global Front, Chinese and US stock markets all rose. In Europe, British and German stocks closed lower. In the foreign exchange market, the dollar index closed down 0.37 per cent at 93.61.

Key statistics for next week

1. China will announce the profits of industrial enterprises of scale and above in September

Time: Wednesday (10/27)

Comments: announced in August the steady growth of industrial enterprise profits, profit pattern further differentiation. From the point of view of industrial distribution, the profit growth rate of the upstream industries has accelerated, while the profit space of the middle and lower industries has been under pressure; the upgrade of the dual control of energy consumption in September will make the inflation polarization continue, and the middle and lower industries may continue to be under pressure.

(2) summary of key statistics for next week